A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
