Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The typical count of daily murders each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative figures. However, public safety analysts have advised that homicide data might not indicate enhanced national security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was also concerning because it could mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.